First of all, I want to talk about Blanket Rezoning, the rage in conversation in Calgary right now. I personally don't think it's going to go away and while the negatives: density, parking seem to outweigh (to current residents) the positives, the backlash against it will have minimal impact.

This is a reality that has hit Vancouver and Toronto a while ago, and it is a typical prototype of many great European cities.

With the cost of building, it's unlikely prices will come down (at first) because right now what we're seeing is the soaring cost of knockdown houses/lots. That, coupled with all else, the price of new units will be high.

The sad fact is that a lot of these will be rental units (a federal government initiative that is very short sighted). Upper and middle class inner city will definitely feel the impact. I think, ownership would have been the key here but that opens up a whole new can of worms (current government, inflation, debt etc).  However, the city simply can not afford the cost of expansion and therefore I see this as the outcome of that problem. 

Maybe we'll think twice about getting that second car as parking will become a major issue. More on this in the next newsletter. 

CALGARY SPRING 2024 OUTLOOK

As we continue to feel the lingering effects of winter on the weather, in some ways the vibrant winter market has continued into an even more blustery Spring Market.  Sales and Prices are up and the city housing market seems, at times, like a runaway train.  And with the Transmountain pipeline FINALLY starting up, it seems that the current run will never end.

In general, sales have increased across the board from this time last year by over 7% and new listings are helping; up by 11.4%. But active listings continue to fall (because of course - the quick sales). They are now down 16% from the ridiculous low of last year and by over 40% from 2 years ago. In total, Calgary has 2737 listings when a normal spring market would have 5000 to 6000! Benchmark price is up 10% from last year, median price almost 13%, and average price 11%. Days on Market (DOM) continues to drop 17% -- now at a measly 20 days average for all sales.

DETACHED HOMES

Sales are finally slowing a bit here. Up only 1.4% while new listings are up over 10%. Still there's not many listings, down by almost 17% from a scant few last year and half of what there was in 2022. Benchmark price is a solid 13% up, median almost 11% up, and average price 9.3% up. The high prices on detached are affecting where people buy, choosing to go for a bit lower priced units. DOM for detached is down 13.6% at 19.

SEMI-DETACHED HOMES

There are not many of these around; all the new ones selling quickly. Sales are up nearly 10% but new units available are down over 10% Active listings are down a whopping 27% with barely over 200 units on the market. The benchmark price is up 13%, the median price way up at over 18% and average price up nearly 16%. The reality is building these are costly due to high costs of lots, and the surge in price is reflective of that. Even older units have increased a lot as a result of this. DOM is down 12% to 22 days.

TOWNHOUSES

Total Sales are up over 16% and new listings are increasing by 18.5%.  This statistic will soar in the next year as the blanket rezoning initiative will bring about the building of a huge number of townhouses in the inner city at first, then spreading outward. As of today, Active listings are still down by nearly 15% from last year because of the brisk sales. Prices continue to fly -- up pretty much 20% across the board. Just a little reminder that house prices everywhere else in Canada at this time are barely rising more than a few percentage points. DOM for townhouses averaged 19, down nearly 14% from last year. Just a note about what might happen in the future: most of the townhouses hitting the market next year will be new and with building costs, labour and supply chain continuing to be an issue, it's likely we'll keep seeing these massive price increases in this type of housing.

CONDOS

Condos have become the accepted entry level purchase in Calgary. Once shunned, they now form a respectable part of the market. While people in Toronto continue to pay nearly a million for a one or two bedroom inner city unit, these in Calgary are still relatively cheap. We're seeing a 12% increase in sales; 11.5% in new listings and active listings are still down under 12.5%. The Benchmark price is up nearly 18% and both median and average price are up around 21%. DOM is down 15%. Condos are a reality of the Calgary market for people who want to get in.

I'm seeing a bit of sign of cooling -- mostly because there are more houses coming on the market which might cool prices in the short term.  It's a seller's market and will remain so for a while. Buyers will be wise to note prices will continue to increase so now is a good time to buy unless you want to wait a long while. Interest rate drops are just around the corner and that should add gasoline to an already hot market fire.